What can we infer about the trajectory of Diablo-clones from the data?
Long view
When I say I’m dubious on the longevity of the ARPG subgenre, I’m interested in long-term player count. As most of the genre has steered into the ‘live service’ model, spikes at season launch are expected, and so the magnitude and subsequent fall-off thereof can help us analyse the health of any particular game, but may not tell us the full story.
Games as a service
Live service, or ‘games as a service’, refers to a contemporary business and development model that sees games as a continuous content model. This is in contrast to the traditional model of developing a standalone product which is released as then considered done. It may be added to subsequently with expansions and/or downloadable content (DLC), however the base game itself is only changed in order to patch bugs or address balance issues. Games as a service therefore delivers a sort of minimum viable product, which it releases to the public with the intention of updating and adding to on a rolling basis. This takes advantage of the ease of updating and availability of DLC, which developers to update games on a continuous basis. This is usually accompanied by microtransactions and season passes in order to monetise content, although other monetisation methods are available.
Does the line go up?
If we look at the Steam numbers for Diablo IV from mid-October 2023 to the start of August 2024 we find a player count of roughly 12,000 in mid-October 23 and just over 30,000 in August 24. So if we just took those two points, we might assume a relatively steady uptick in Steam players.
What actually happened is that the player count rose to approximately 29,000 in mid-November 23 and subsequently fell to around 6,500 over the following 2 months. There was a brief spike back to 15,000 in February and from March to May it held at around 6-7,000 players. In mid-May it shot right back up to 29,000 players and increased to 40,000 by the start of June. From June to August it lost almost 35,000 players and with the Season 5 launch went back to 30,000 players. So notice that the spikes are huge for Diablo IV, but the core audience on Steam is only about 6,000 players give or take. We do not have any data for the Blizzard launcher, which is the primary platform from which Blizzard’s games are accessed, meaning this is not a reliable data set.
Comparing that to Path of Exile on the same timeframe we see the following: mid-October 23 saw a player count of roughly 30,000 and a player count of about 114,000 at the same point in mid-August 24. Again, taking those two points, you’d expect a steady rise in player count. Not so.
At the end of November 23, Path of Exile saw about 16,000 players. It spiked to approximately 168,000 players at the start of December. Between the start of December 23 and mid-March 24, the player count dropped to roughly 14,000 players – a difference of 154,000 players over 3 months. It spiked back to just shy of 190,000 by 25th March, falling to a low of about 7,500 players at the start of July. Between the 15th and 22nd July the player count went from 12,000 players to 229,000 players. On the 12 August 2024 the player count was roughly 115,000, having lost effectively half of the player base over 21 days. As an eyeball estimate the core audience seems to be about 13,000 players.
That trend is almost identical in shape to Diablo IV‘s but violently exaggerated. Let’s compare those trends to Destiny 2 and Elden Ring – one a looter shooter emphasising player action and the ability to aim, the other an action RPG from a third-person perspective with an emphasis on skill-based combat utilising active dodging mechanics, the importance of timing, movement skills, etc. In both cases, the player is responsible for actively attacking, hitting, and defending against enemies, instead of relying on dice rolls.
One significant counterpoint I should acknowledge here, is the overall progression of the Path of Exile player numbers, which from roughly 2015 to the present day, have grown with relative consistency, with the Settlers of Kalguur update notching a new all-time high. It would be interesting to know whether the draw to this was the core game, or the novelty of the settlement building. And I wonder if the previous all-time highs have coincided with Grinding Gear Games’ more experimental updates, such as the Heist in 2020 or Betrayal in 2018. Betrayal did see an all time high, while Heist did not. Broadly, however, if the experimental leagues did see comparatively more and greater all time highs than leagues that iterated or added a variation to the pre-existing mechanics, such as the Essence or Delerium leagues, that would seem to indicate a broad appetite for an upending and core advancement of the genre at a fundamental level.
Destiny 2 had about 38,000 players in mid-November 2023, rising to just below 104,000 at the end of November. Between the end of November 23 and the end of February 24 it returned to a player count of just below 41,000. Between then and the start of April it rose to 134,000 players – the majority of that gain coming between the 1st and the 8th April where it gained about 93,000 players. it held roughly steady until mid-May and then spiked to 314,000 players at the beginning of June. between its apex on the 3rd of June to the 12th of August if fell back to 45,000 players – a significant loss of almost 270,000 players.
Notice how much higher the lowest player count is – more than double that of Path of Exile‘s lows. Without bothering to convert to percentages, the relative spikes between highs and lows seem broadly comparable to those of Path of Exile. I wonder if, with the inclusion of the Blizzard client numbers, the Diablo IV numbers would look similar? I couldn’t reasonably make an estimation.
Elden Ring is notable here as it is a game that does not rely on seasons, therefore you can say that the core audience is going to be relatively consistent regardless of month. There are no cycles and spikes, outside of major patches and expansion releases of which Elden Ring has had one, Shadow of the Erdtree, released on the 21st June 2024.
In mid-November 23 Elden Ring had approximately 68,000 players. It rose to around 99,000 at the start of January 24, fell back to 59,000 in mid-February, gained about 50,000 players between the 12th and 19th of February, and then fell back to around 60,000 at the beginning of May. Between the 6th May and the 10th June it went from approximately 59,000 players to 174,000 players in the ramp up to the release of Shadow of the Erdtree. Between the 10th and the 17th it went from 174,000 players to 781,000 players. From that high point in mid-June to the 12th August the player count fell to approximately 107,000 players – a substantial fall off over less than a month, by any measurement.
To return to my musing on Path of Exile‘s league mechanics with reference to player count vs novelty – if the thesis that there is a wide desire for fundamental advancement is correct, then we can suggest two things: The first is that, coming from the second generation, Path of Exile‘s experimentation is, of necessity, locked on the outskirts of the fundamentals of the game. They are interesting and they tie into the basic ‘kill monsters to get loot’ gameplay loop, but despite their relatively ambitious breaks with genre conventions they can still function as ascended minigames in being almost a step removed from the core loop. The second is that a core progression on the fundamental aspects of the genre, such as the basic switch to WASD movement controls, may lay the foundations for that progressions, which may be what Path of Exile 2, with its iteration on fundametal aspects of the genre, achieves to a greater or lesser extent.
In all cases that core player base is relatively consistent, but I would argue that the substantial differences between the core players who are playing during the between-season lulls, points to a significant preference for active skill-based gameplay over passive dice-based gameplay. This is doubly notable for Elden Ring, which even exceeds the player counts of Destiny 2 at the low points, despite there being no seasonal cycle and thus no new content to help refresh those numbers.
A lack of action in action RPGs?
As developers and publishers look to replicate successful titles by incorporating aspects of those games into their own projects, we may see a more substantial shift in the genre. The implication may be that Blizzard simply wasn’t bold enough with Diablo IV. There are already titles emerging in the ARPG subgenre that are moving far beyond the current baby steps taken by Diablo IV and Last Epoch. Path of Exile 2 may have incorporated enough basic system changes with the shift towards a more hack-and-slash-esque gameplay flow to persistently engage players – from what we’ve seen, Grinding Gear Games have done a lot of work and moved the needle enough to potentially redefine the expectations of the ‘core’ audience, which in turn will pave the way for more dramatic and much needed experimentation. As Path of Exile 2 is unreleased at the time of writing, it remains to be seen whether my assessment is correct.
Words and Chaos 
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